After more than a year of widespread avoidance of the Red Sea-Suez route following Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, there are emerging signs that the situation may be gradually stabilising. Industry sources have confirmed that the Suez Canal Authority has held direct talks with several major ocean carriers about conditions for a return to the route.
Traffic Trends
Traffic through the Suez Canal is reportedly increasing year-on-year, which analysts interpret as a cautious signal that some carriers are beginning to reassess the risk calculus of the route. However, it is important to note that volumes remain significantly below pre-crisis levels, and the majority of major carriers continue to route via the Cape of Good Hope.
The Houthi Threat Remains
Despite the diplomatic signals, the underlying security threat has not been eliminated. Western naval forces — including Operation Prosperity Guardian — have been unable to fully neutralise the Houthi threat, with four commercial vessels sunk between 2024 and 2025. Most carriers are maintaining their Cape diversions until a more durable security arrangement is in place.
What This Means for Shippers
For UK and European importers and exporters trading with Asia, the Middle East, and East Africa, the continued Cape diversions mean:
- Transit times on Asia–Europe routes remain 10–14 days longer than pre-crisis norms.
- Freight rates remain elevated, though there has been some softening from the 2024 peaks.
- Carriers are beginning to offer "Suez-optional" services, where vessels may transit Suez if conditions permit.
Allenek continues to monitor carrier routing decisions closely and will advise customers of any changes to service schedules that may affect their shipments. Contact us at [email protected] for the latest schedule information.
