Since the outbreak of the Iran-US conflict on 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints — has experienced severe and sustained disruption. The Strait, which carries approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and a significant share of containerised cargo destined for the Gulf region, has seen vessel transits fall to just 5–6 ships per day, compared to normal levels of 20+ daily transits.

What Is Happening at the Strait?

Multiple vessels have been attacked or seized since hostilities began, and Iran has imposed a de facto blockade on non-approved shipping. According to maritime intelligence firm Lloyd's List, more than 20 vessels have taken a "Tehran-approved route" as of 23 March 2026, while the majority of commercial carriers are diverting away from the Gulf entirely.

Iran has signalled "safe passage" to certain flag states — including Malaysia, Thailand, and some Chinese-flagged vessels — though even these assurances have proven unreliable, with Chinese-linked ships ordered to turn back as recently as 27 March 2026.

Impact on Global Freight Rates

The disruption has compounded already elevated global sea freight costs, which had remained persistently high following the Red Sea / Houthi crisis of 2024–2025. Carriers serving Middle East Gulf ports (Jebel Ali, Dammam, Sohar, Salalah) are now rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to transit times and significantly increasing fuel surcharges. Spot rates on Asia–Europe and Asia–Gulf trade lanes have spiked sharply.

How Does This Affect UK & European Shippers?

For Allenek customers trading with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar, the following impacts should be anticipated:

  • Extended transit times: Cape of Good Hope diversions add approximately 10–14 days to standard Gulf transit times.
  • Increased freight rates: Emergency surcharges (EBS) and war risk premiums are being applied by most major carriers on Gulf-bound services.
  • Equipment shortages: Container repositioning delays are emerging as boxes accumulate at diversion ports.
  • Port congestion: Alternative Gulf ports outside the Strait (e.g., Salalah, Oman) are experiencing increased demand and congestion.

What Allenek Is Doing

Our operations team is actively monitoring the situation and working with our carrier partners to secure space on alternative routings. We are in direct contact with customers whose shipments are affected and are providing real-time updates on vessel positions and ETA revisions.

If you have cargo currently in transit or bookings pending for Gulf destinations, please contact your dedicated Allenek account manager or email [email protected] for a personalised update.

Outlook

The Dallas Federal Reserve's analysis (20 March 2026) suggests the probability of full Strait closure remains elevated through Q2 2026, with potential normalisation in Q3 2026 if a ceasefire is reached. However, given the volatility of the situation, Allenek recommends that customers with time-sensitive Gulf shipments build additional buffer time into their supply chain planning and consider alternative routing options where feasible.

We will continue to publish updates as the situation develops. For the latest market intelligence, subscribe to the Allenek newsletter below.